Climate Change

Bureau Of Meteorology 30yr Averages

Screenshot from 2013-04-24 06:11:19

The table (image) above shows the 30 year averages for Sydney Observatory (Observatory Hill).  Click on the image to show larger version.

Some observations 1) This is actual data from the weather station. (not a climate change model)  2) In the period of (150 yrs) there has been change in land use; the Bradfield highway, across Sydney Harbour Bridge has come into being; many more buildings, people etc. 3) The UHI (Urban Heat Island) effect cannot be discounted. 4) The more responsive platinum wire thermometer was introduced in 1992.

So looking at the charted January maximum temperatures we have a minimum of 25.6 deg  1861 and 1921 and a maximum of 26.5 deg in the 1981 to 2010 30 yr average.  But look at 1891 to 1920 January average, it was 26.0 deg, only 0.5 deg lower than the highest previously mentioned.  Remember this is data talking, not a climate model !  Could it be a cyclic weather pattern, not climate change.  More data  needed.

Posted on April 7, 2013 by Anthony Watts

Back in 1998, when we had the super El Niño, some of the warm water pooled east and west of Australia (seen in the 1998 image below) and damaged coral reefs there, setting off a cottage industry for noisy alarmy/worry types like Ove Hoegh-Guldberg that have turned the “save the coral reefs” issue into a career.

WA’s Scott Reef has recovered from mass bleaching in 1998

Embargo: Friday 5th April, 5 am AEDT (Thursday 4th April, 2 pm US Eastern Time)

Isolated coral reefs can recover from catastrophic damage as effectively as those with nearby undisturbed neighbours, a long-term study by marine biologists from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoECRS) has shown.

Scott Reef, a remote coral system in the Indian Ocean, has largely recovered from a catastrophic mass bleaching event in 1998, according to the study published in Science today.

The study challenges conventional wisdom that suggested isolated reefs were more vulnerable to disturbance, because they were thought to depend on recolonisation from other reefs. Instead, the scientists found that the isolation of reefs allowed surviving corals to rapidly grow and propagate in the absence of human interference”

Ref: http://www.aims.gov.au/latest-news/-/asset_publisher/MlU7

Note a)AWS-automatic weather station platinum resistance thermometer introduced 1992 fast response time seconds not fractions of minutes (~ 20-30s) No reading biases by volunteers eg sheep station owners – could round down or up to nearest degree.
b) UHI urban heat island. Observatory Hill is effectively a UHI at the present time 2013
c)
“…”Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino,” the bureau’s manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said. “So this is what we’re looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we’re seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds.” Dr Watkins says they are not sure why there has been a cooling down””It actually is quite a unique situation if we end up not going into an El Nino event,” he said.
“It’ll sort of be the biggest turnaround that we’ve actually seen in our records going back to about 1950, so quite unprecedented.”
Ref: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-24/forecasters…by-el…/4332260

Current Reading
Tropical Pacific ENSO neutral
“Issued on Tuesday 26 March 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO
The tropical Pacific remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. Current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn.
Despite the April to June period being historically the most difficult time of the year for making ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) predictions, all dynamical models agree that neither El Niño nor La Niña is likely to develop in the coming months. Likewise, observations of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and atmospheric indicators have consistently remained within neutral ranges since spring 2012.” …
Ref; http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso

A popular political myth at the moment is that all the “global warming” is caused by just one gas, carbon dioxide and in particular that generated by human activity. Is this true?

The Heat Wave in Australia.

NEARLY 200 DEATHS FROM HEAT APOPLEXY.
ITS SEVERITY IN NEW SOUTH WALES. BUSINESS SERIOUSLY INTERFERED WITH. PEOPLE LEAVING BOURKE.

(From Exchanges.)

The long continuance of the unprecedented heat wave in New South Wales is proving a very serious matter to the residents in some of the districts, especially in the western portion of the colony. Over 125 deaths from heat apoplexy have occurred In New South Wales, and to this number Bourke has already contributed 40. The matter has be- come so serious that the railway authorities have commenced running trains at special cheap fares, to enable the residents to seek a cooler climate, and a great number are availing themselves of the opportunity.

In many parts, to add to the difficulties of the situation, the water supply is running short   and typhoid fever and kindred diseases are very prevalent. The hospitals are all full of patients, suffering either from fever or sun-stroke. To farmers and graziers the continued heat is proving very serious, the feed being withered up, tanks dry, and horses, sheep, and cattle dying by hundreds, and many settlers’ homes have been destroyed by the bush fires. Never in the history of New South Wales has such a continuance of fierce heat been known.

From West Australia also come reports of intense heat, Geraldton topping the record with 125 degrees in the shade.

The telegrams from various places include the following :—

BREWARINNA, January 18.— A pleasant breeze sprang up last evening, which was refreshing after the excessive heat of the day. Considerable sickness prevails here, and another death from heat apoplexy has occurred at Maylands, on the Culgoa River. The thermometer registered 116deg. in the shade to-day.

BOURKE, January 18.— The glass was at 116 to-day. The continuous heat is causing much sickness and fatality. Three more deaths are reported to-day, the victims being   Michael Coleman, drover; Mrs Kermod, widow; John Matthews, woolpresser. The   total number of deaths since last Sunday morning is 25. Many women and children are leaving Bourke for Sydney and the mountains daily.

BOURKE, Jan 21.— Two deaths are re- ported from heat apoplexy, bringing the record to 35. The average heat for the month to date has been 112 in the shade, and for the past four days 118. A large number of people left Bourke by train this morning, and cheap excursion trains have been specially provided, and will be largely patronised to-morrow. The residents are panic-stricken, and hundreds are leaving for a cooler climate.

WlLCANNIA, January 18.— Yesterday the heat was again intense, the thermometer registering 112, while to-day it reached 118. Two deaths occurred during the night, one being a child and the other the Rev Father Davern who expired shortly before 2 o’clock this morning. The rev. gentleman had been in delicate health for some time, and was to have left for Broken-hill yesterday for a two months’ vacation, but postponed his departure owing to the oppressive weather. He became worse during the after noon, and lost consciousness at 11 o’clock last night. Father Davern has been a resident of Willcannla for eight years. He was universally respected, his acts of charity having extended to members of all denominations. Reports have been received from the town and district of many cases of illness. The glass is now standing at over 100deg. without any prospect of a change.

WILCANNIA, JAN. 19.— Three more deaths have occurred here from the heat, Meadamos Hedger, Edmond, and White succumbing to the extremely high temperature.

CARRATHOOL, January 20,—The weather is again extremely hot, the thermometer yesterday recording 104 in the shade. To day, at 10 o’clock, 99 was recorded, at noon 109 and at 3 o’clock 115 with a scorching northerly wind, and dust. To-night the weather is dull and oppressive, and a thunder-storm is threatening. At 8 o’clock the glass still showed 101.

HAY, January 18.—The weather continues   to be the prevailing topic of conversation;   to-day was the hottest of the season, the glass registering 113.5.

DENILIQUIN,January 13.—In consequence of the drought and scarcity of feed, the Riverina freezing works here will close down this week for several months, or, at any rate, until the drought breaks up. This will throw nearly 150 men out of employment. The weather to-day is very hot, the thermometer registering 108.

ST. MARYS, January 20.—After three days of cool weather, a change has come, and today was somewhat similar to last Monday. The thermometer stood at 109 in the shade, and at 7 p.m. was still over 100. One child has died through the effects of the heat. Today, a number of the employees at the different factories were prostrated. The want of a permanent supply of water is badly felt, and the outlook is serious.

BULLI, January 20.—A woman has been brought to the Bulli Hospital in a demented condition, suffering from sunstroke. She was tramping the roads, with her husband, two days before, when she was prostrated by a sunstroke. Her husband carried her through all the sweltering heat to Bulli, taking two days over the journey.

Telegrams from many other places have similar tales to tell of extreme heat. Nyngan reports 114deg. At Lithgow coal-mining is seriously interfered with, the furnaces having been shut down owing to scarcity of water, throwing a lot of men out of employment. At Mudgee, Henry Lambert was sun struck, and the Cudgegon River and Lawson’s Creek have stopped running, Gilgunnia reports 112deg , with an increase of sickness, one child dying, from the effects of the heat. Greta reports. 110deg, ; many cattle and other stock perishing. At Singleton two men, G. Clarke and O. Solomon, were taken to the hospital supposed to be suffering from typhoid fever, but it turned out to be sunstroke. At Tamworth the maize is wilting and turning yellow. Tenterfield, 106deg., grass and young crops withering. Windsor, 112deg. Lyndhurst, 110deg., .and water very, scarce. Mur- willumbah reports 110deg. for five days. At Nymagee, 114deg , the drinking water was condemned by doctors as being quite unfit to drink, and very conductive to hydatids.

SYDNEY, January 22.— At Bourke to-day the thermometer marked 120 in the shade. Almost all business places, except hotels, are closed. Heavy clouds are now hanging about, and there are hopes of rain. Two more deaths have taken place. Four deaths from heat occurred last week at Gundabooks. Many persons left Bourke by special excursion train this morning. The hospital is crowded with patients.

BRISBANE, January 22.— The weather has been exceedingly oppressive to-day, being the highest record for the summer. A high “shade” temperature prevails throughout the colony, the principal being Thargomindah and Cunnamulla, 113 ; Bolton, 112 ; Isisford, 110. Roma reports all crops withering. A Thargomindah telegram states that five more sudden deaths have occurred in the district, all attributed to heat.

Latest advices from Sydney, under Thursday’s date, report that a welcome change in the weather, accompanied by a fall of rain, has taken place New South Wales on the coast and highlands. In the far West it is still hot, while In the north thunderstorms of cyclonic violence are reported.

West Australian telegrams report :—

GERALDTON, January 19.— Weather very hot ; 125deg. in the shade yesterday. A great deal of sickness prevalent, and water scarce.

KALGOORLIE, January 19. — The heat on Friday was intense. Mr Z. Lane lost by sunstroke a pair of horses which he was driving to Coolgardie. At night a heavy duststorm, accompanied by lightning and rain, occurred. The following items will show in some degree the sort of weather experienced in Perth lately:

The Perth “Daily News” of a recent date says the decision of Messrs Stevens and Wilkinson to close the pantomime season for a few days on account of the hot weather was generally approved by playgoers.

The Mayor ( H. J. Saunders) is to be commended on the rapidity with which he gets through the business of the City Council. Last evening, at the monthly meeting, the heat was almost unbearable ; the thermometer in the room registering considerably over 100 degrees. Councillor George, however, does not consider that the dignity of a councillor should be upheld when the mercury is at boiling point, for before the meeting opened he divested himself of his coat and waistcoat, unstraped his braces, and delivered himself of oratorical utterances in his shirt sleeves. Before doing this he appealed to the. Mayor, who was tastefully dressed in an Indian officer’s undress full evening costume, for permission to partially disrobe, and was given a hesitating, though diplomatic answer in the affirmative.”

Wellington Times and Agricultural and Mining Gazette (Tas : 1890 – 1897)

Saturday 25th January 1896

All the above are give in Fahrenheit degrees. Conversion to Celsius is as follows :

95°F = 35°C; 104°F = 40°C; 113°F = 45°C; 122°F = 50°C

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/64889112

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